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22.11.2022
Thoughts on the Autumn Statement
Despite the Chancellor's Autumn Statement on 17 November 2022, markets have not reacted strongly at the time of writing. The UK economy is in trouble, no matter what you blame it on, and stability provides an effective platform for initiatives (to succeed or fail - time will tell).
What has Mr Hunt done to achieve that stability?
In general, by accepting credible estimates provided by independent advisers, making changes that will keep controversy to a minimum (these days, that's more important than whether the changes are economically sustainable), and putting off the really bad news until after the next election.
Last but not least, this is presumably intended to be a booby trap for the opposition:
- promise to reverse proposed tax increases/spending cuts and they will be open to accusations of fiscal incontinence (not to mention that it is the current government, not the Opposition, that is supposed to favour lower taxes);
- leave the tax increases/spending cuts and be accused of having no ideas of their own, endorsing pain for consumers, etc.
Magic
Chancellor's future plans also appear to be a bit of a trick: Energy is very expensive at the moment, so if I promise to cut usage and produce more internally, so we don't have to purchase so much expensive foreign energy, I can save a lot of money that I won't have to pay back in future borrowings.
Under the radar
Last but not least, here are a few details that have been overlooked in the context of the big-ticket items, like threshold freezes:
- the SDLT breaks announced by Kwasi Kwarteng (notably an increase in the nil-rate threshold to £250,000 to help first-time buyers offset the cost of higher mortgage interest) have been time-limited until 31 March 2025;
- £79 million will be set aside over the next 5 years “to enable HMRC to allocate additional staff to tackle more cases of serious tax fraud and address tax compliance risks among wealthy taxpayers” (this is forecast to bring in £725 million of additional tax revenues over the next 5 years and of course begs the question why isn’t HMRC doing much more of this investing £1 to get back £10?); and
- the proposed online sales tax will not now go ahead (instead of an expensive and time-consuming consultation exercise, couldn’t someone have just said “that’s a stupid idea, it’ll never work, forget it”?).
I am a Fellow Certified Chartered Accountant with over 10 years’ experience, and the Director of Expert Accounting and Finance.
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